Thanks for that research! Do you have good sources for getting release data at scale?
I have not looked into it for a while, and it seemed quite manual/not scaling to get that for every company, even more so on mobile given how many smaller games get pushed... so I always wondered if it was worth the effort. and focused on the post-release data instead.
It could be interesting to couple pre-release date with sentiment-analysis, for example, or generally how much traffic/noise is generated around that game as well. There must be tools out there for that.
Not at scale. Not only that, but as you can see, the effect is not clear without understanding the context of the company (what is a big release for each company, can it get delayed...). Personally, I think it is difficult to make this into a system (at least in a quant-like way)
For mobile, I don't even think it applies, because there is a lot less hype going around, and I think expectations is what drives this.
Very interesting. However i have one notpick. You have to take into account how "the market" in generally acted and how much of that game studios stock performance was merely beta as opposed to alpha. It that makes sense.
That's a fair point, but in events like this, the effect is usually big enough that it is not so noticeable. That said, I might do an update of that table compared to some good reference if I find one (difficult to find something without a lot of decisions that affect the performance of the index or etf to be used for measuring, or with a lot of geographical bias)
a similar case can be made for investing in E&P stocks based on exploration success. The spudding date is known and the company usually provides pre drill estimates of potential oil in place, so analysts and investors can make assumptions based on 1) chance of success 2) recovery rates, tax rates and proximity to existing infrastructure which will impact the discounted value per barrel. A time honoured process has been to buy prior to the well being spudded and sell once drilling starts. Only issue is if the UK govt unfavourably changes the tax rates between you buying and the well being being spudded. Not my problem now though, but i have done this early in my career and made money.
Yes, I suspect it is a fairly common dynamic in other sectors as well (pharma/biotech being a notable exception in some cases, due to the regulatory outcomes). And yet, in no market can you play it if you don't know it in some detail. It is never the only variable, is it? ˆˆ'
Thanks for that research! Do you have good sources for getting release data at scale?
I have not looked into it for a while, and it seemed quite manual/not scaling to get that for every company, even more so on mobile given how many smaller games get pushed... so I always wondered if it was worth the effort. and focused on the post-release data instead.
It could be interesting to couple pre-release date with sentiment-analysis, for example, or generally how much traffic/noise is generated around that game as well. There must be tools out there for that.
Not at scale. Not only that, but as you can see, the effect is not clear without understanding the context of the company (what is a big release for each company, can it get delayed...). Personally, I think it is difficult to make this into a system (at least in a quant-like way)
For mobile, I don't even think it applies, because there is a lot less hype going around, and I think expectations is what drives this.
Very interesting. However i have one notpick. You have to take into account how "the market" in generally acted and how much of that game studios stock performance was merely beta as opposed to alpha. It that makes sense.
That's a fair point, but in events like this, the effect is usually big enough that it is not so noticeable. That said, I might do an update of that table compared to some good reference if I find one (difficult to find something without a lot of decisions that affect the performance of the index or etf to be used for measuring, or with a lot of geographical bias)
a similar case can be made for investing in E&P stocks based on exploration success. The spudding date is known and the company usually provides pre drill estimates of potential oil in place, so analysts and investors can make assumptions based on 1) chance of success 2) recovery rates, tax rates and proximity to existing infrastructure which will impact the discounted value per barrel. A time honoured process has been to buy prior to the well being spudded and sell once drilling starts. Only issue is if the UK govt unfavourably changes the tax rates between you buying and the well being being spudded. Not my problem now though, but i have done this early in my career and made money.
Yes, I suspect it is a fairly common dynamic in other sectors as well (pharma/biotech being a notable exception in some cases, due to the regulatory outcomes). And yet, in no market can you play it if you don't know it in some detail. It is never the only variable, is it? ˆˆ'