Welcome aboard! I've been writing about this company and attending the AGMs for the last 2 years 😉 You can find them over at firmreturns.com if you're interested.
Anyway, good article. Glad it's getting some coverage.
Hey, thanks! I think the situation now and in 2023 is very different though. The list of releases that was pending then was not great, and the expenses were not trending down as sharply.
Yeah I agree. They overextended themselves after the IPO and made a disastrous acquisition of another publisher, which they couldn't shed until they'd settled a legal case with the prior owners.
I think most people complaining about access (myself included) are geographically challenged and live outside the UK and invest there through international brokers... maybe not the best set-up for AIM stuff, but hey, can't help myself!
And yes, it is in the 17th as it passed Vampire and there were a couple other releases (Civilization VII and Kingdom Come: Deliverance II). Will probably to 16 soon (two new popular releases coming, but the new Metal Gear Solid will probably surpass it)
Is Kingmakers a third-party publishing deal? I agree with the potential of this game and think 1M copies should be attainable, but if this is pure 3rd party I'd be a lot more conservative about the revenue contribution to tinyBuild.
Edit: Missed the part where it's mentioned in the article. Probably closer to 30% publisher based on my experience and if want to be conservative. But then again this can go either way in the industry.
Thanks for the comment, Danny! You have a point, but my impression is that it is going to be higher than 30%. The reason I think that is because deals where a publisher takes that share usually happen because the title does not require a ton of financing, but as far as I can tell the latest game from Redemption Road (which was Road Redemption!) is from 2017 and I suspect Kingmakers' budget has been relevant.
That said, usually the share enters in play after the costs are recovered. We are buying tinyBuild with $49 million of development costs capitalised in the balance sheet, and I think Kingmakers is a relevant part of that (of course, not the majority, or even 50%). Accounting wise, that part is not going to be profit... but it is going to be cash, and that is what I really care about.
I've got them on my list as a developer of mobile games too, mostly thanks to "Hello Neighbor". But that has not been a considerable portion of their revenue, and so I've never looked into them.
Interesting - Keeping an eye out for an even better entry price, given the risky nature of it, may as well be greedy!
I suspect it will be difficult to get a much better price before Kingmakers goes out, but with things this illiquid, who knows. Not uncommon to have 20% difference between the high and the low for the day
I agree this could double. Devolver/Frontier are both at 1x sales. Guess I'm a bit nervous of exit timing.
Came across Kingmakers during the viral peak and have a good feeling about that one in particular.
Btw for UK people, this is available on Freetrade on their premium plan (£4.99 for a month to enter, then cancel the subscription and you can sell for free whenever)
Thanks for the pointer! That gives you access to the electronic trading modality, right?
As for Devolver/Frontier, yes, and also they have in my view worse positioning, with less interesting releases coming up (in Frontier's case, no big release until FY26) and heavier cost structures.
Yep, think Freetrade and AJ Bell are the only low-cost UK brokers that support it.
I really like Devolver's management style but would have to agree, really surprised by how much the back-catalogue has grown for Tinybuild. When I last checked it a few years ago I remember it was a lot lower both, absolute and mix.
This is a name thats been on my radar and was tempted by. Wanted a starter position, but alas IBKR doesn't support this stock. What made me want to buy it (besides the release opportunities) is that the founder put up a lot of cash in the rights offering. Looks like a good speculative bet.
The average daily volume of that listing is like $2k. If liquidity is a problem in the main listing, there it is multiplied. So sure, you can. But you can't, really.
Welcome aboard! I've been writing about this company and attending the AGMs for the last 2 years 😉 You can find them over at firmreturns.com if you're interested.
Anyway, good article. Glad it's getting some coverage.
Hey, thanks! I think the situation now and in 2023 is very different though. The list of releases that was pending then was not great, and the expenses were not trending down as sharply.
Yeah I agree. They overextended themselves after the IPO and made a disastrous acquisition of another publisher, which they couldn't shed until they'd settled a legal case with the prior owners.
Got the whole journey on record.
Hi,
Couple of things. You can purchase share via HL. It may not give you an automtic quote but I know people that have acquired them via the dealing desk.
Also Kingmakers now 17th on the Steam wish list
https://steamdb.info/stats/mostwished/
Interesting post. Thanks
Thanks Simon!
I think most people complaining about access (myself included) are geographically challenged and live outside the UK and invest there through international brokers... maybe not the best set-up for AIM stuff, but hey, can't help myself!
And yes, it is in the 17th as it passed Vampire and there were a couple other releases (Civilization VII and Kingdom Come: Deliverance II). Will probably to 16 soon (two new popular releases coming, but the new Metal Gear Solid will probably surpass it)
Is Kingmakers a third-party publishing deal? I agree with the potential of this game and think 1M copies should be attainable, but if this is pure 3rd party I'd be a lot more conservative about the revenue contribution to tinyBuild.
Edit: Missed the part where it's mentioned in the article. Probably closer to 30% publisher based on my experience and if want to be conservative. But then again this can go either way in the industry.
Thanks for the comment, Danny! You have a point, but my impression is that it is going to be higher than 30%. The reason I think that is because deals where a publisher takes that share usually happen because the title does not require a ton of financing, but as far as I can tell the latest game from Redemption Road (which was Road Redemption!) is from 2017 and I suspect Kingmakers' budget has been relevant.
That said, usually the share enters in play after the costs are recovered. We are buying tinyBuild with $49 million of development costs capitalised in the balance sheet, and I think Kingmakers is a relevant part of that (of course, not the majority, or even 50%). Accounting wise, that part is not going to be profit... but it is going to be cash, and that is what I really care about.
I think you're right - there was an interview with the devs and its clear they've been working on it for a while: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=67E3RsDp0Pg&t=1899s&pp=ygUUa2luZ21ha2VycyBpbnRlcnZpZXc%3D
I've got them on my list as a developer of mobile games too, mostly thanks to "Hello Neighbor". But that has not been a considerable portion of their revenue, and so I've never looked into them.
Interesting - Keeping an eye out for an even better entry price, given the risky nature of it, may as well be greedy!
I suspect it will be difficult to get a much better price before Kingmakers goes out, but with things this illiquid, who knows. Not uncommon to have 20% difference between the high and the low for the day
I agree this could double. Devolver/Frontier are both at 1x sales. Guess I'm a bit nervous of exit timing.
Came across Kingmakers during the viral peak and have a good feeling about that one in particular.
Btw for UK people, this is available on Freetrade on their premium plan (£4.99 for a month to enter, then cancel the subscription and you can sell for free whenever)
Thanks for the pointer! That gives you access to the electronic trading modality, right?
As for Devolver/Frontier, yes, and also they have in my view worse positioning, with less interesting releases coming up (in Frontier's case, no big release until FY26) and heavier cost structures.
Yep, think Freetrade and AJ Bell are the only low-cost UK brokers that support it.
I really like Devolver's management style but would have to agree, really surprised by how much the back-catalogue has grown for Tinybuild. When I last checked it a few years ago I remember it was a lot lower both, absolute and mix.
This is a name thats been on my radar and was tempted by. Wanted a starter position, but alas IBKR doesn't support this stock. What made me want to buy it (besides the release opportunities) is that the founder put up a lot of cash in the rights offering. Looks like a good speculative bet.
Quite surprised to see IBKR does not cover it indeed. It's available on Swissquote, for those on there.
You can buy it using IKBR, listed in Germany => FRA: 8Z3
The average daily volume of that listing is like $2k. If liquidity is a problem in the main listing, there it is multiplied. So sure, you can. But you can't, really.